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Sodium-glucose contransporter 2 inhibitors in atrial fibrillation: a signal for safer, broader risk reduction?

Nikolaos Fragakis, Paschalis Karakasis
Second Department of Cardiology, Hippokration General Hospital, Medical School, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
DOI: 10.20452/pamw.17259
Published online: March 24, 2026.
CCBYNCSACC BY-NC-SA 4.0

In this article

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is being increasingly understood not as an isolated electrophysiologic disorder, but as a clinical surface expression of a systemic, comorbidity‑driven atrial cardiomyopathy. Aging, cardiometabolic disease, chronic kidney disease (CKD), inflammation, congestion, and the downstream consequences of neurohormonal and hemodynamic stress converge to remodel atrial structure and function, shaping both arrhythmia propensity and clinical vulnerability. This conceptual shift is not merely academic. If AF is approached as a syndrome rather than a standalone rhythm disturbance, durable improvements in outcomes plausibly require more than rhythm or rate control alone. They need parallel modification of the atrial substrate and its drivers,1 alongside meticulous stroke prevention. Contemporary European guidelines, developed by the European Society of Cardiology with special contribution of the European Heart Rhythm Association,2 formalize this approach by prioritizing integrated care pathways, risk factor management, and individualized rhythm control strategies.

Within this framework, sodium‑glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) exemplify the broader recalibration of cardiovascular therapeutics toward disease modification. Initially developed as glucose‑lowering agents, SGLT2is have consistently demonstrated reductions in heart failure (HF) events and clinically meaningful kidney protection across diverse populations, including individuals without diabetes, as shown in landmark trials, such as DAPA‑HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure),3 EMPEROR‑Reduced (Empagliflozin Outcome Trial in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure and a Reduced Ejection Fraction),4 EMPEROR‑Preserved (Empagliflozin Outcome Trial in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction),5 and DAPA‑CKD (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease).6 As a result, the contemporary indication footprint of SGLT2is now overlaps substantially with the clinical terrain in which AF thrives: older patients with hypertension, obesity, diabetes, CKD, and overt or subclinical HF. Therefore, the relevant question is no longer whether SGLT2is are relevant to AF populations—they already are—but whether their pleiotropic cardio‑renal effects translate into measurable reductions in AF‑related complications beyond what would be expected from comorbidity treatment alone.

In this context, the study by Fawzy et al,7 published in this issue of Polish Archives of Internal Medicine, is particularly provocative. Using the TriNetX federated electronic medical record network, the investigators evaluated a very large cohort of anticoagulated patients with AF treated with or without SGLT2is, applying propensity‑score matching and up to 3 years of follow‑up. SGLT2i use was associated with lower risks of bleeding, AF/atrial flutter hospitalization, cardioversion or ablation, and a composite of ventricular arrhythmias or cardiac arrest. Additional associations were reported for lower all‑cause mortality, ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, hemorrhagic stroke, myocardial infarction, incident HF, and thrombotic events. Importantly, these signals persisted in prespecified subanalyses among patients with AF and diabetes and—of particular interest—among nondiabetic patients with AF and HF, an understudied group in which mechanistic plausibility is strong and randomized evidence for arrhythmia‑specific end points remains limited.

Several aspects of these findings deserve emphasis. First, the wide spectrum of the observed associations—spanning bleeding, thromboembolic outcomes, arrhythmia‑related utilization, and mortality—suggests a unifying substrate‑level mechanism rather than a narrow, drug‑like antiarrhythmic effect. SGLT2is may act across multiple interconnected nodes of the AF risk network, including congestion, blood pressure load, endothelial dysfunction, renal vulnerability, and systemic inflammation.8,9 Second, the association with reduced bleeding is especially noteworthy. Bleeding risk often represents the decisive counterweight to anticoagulation intensity and persistence in everyday practice.10 If a therapy already indicated for HF, CKD, or diabetes was also to lower bleeding propensity—whether by stabilizing renal function, mitigating hemodynamic variability, or attenuating vascular inflammation—it would meaningfully expand the therapeutic safety margin for long‑term anticoagulation. Third, the association with fewer AF hospitalizations and fewer cardioversions or ablations—while not a substitute for rhythm control trials—aligns with an emerging narrative that upstream therapies can modulate AF burden and health care utilization even when conventional rhythm control strategies remain unchanged.

Concurrently, the broad scope of apparent benefits mandates restraint in the interpretation of the findings. Observational pharmacoepidemiology, even at the scale of large federated datasets, cannot fully disentangle treatment effect from treatment selection. Residual confounding is not a technical afterthought but the central limitation. Prescription of SGLT2is is closely linked to clinician behavior, specialty care access, socioeconomic factors, and health system quality—variables that also influence bleeding surveillance, hospitalization thresholds, anticoagulation adherence, and competing cardiovascular risks. Propensity‑score matching can reduce imbalance in measured covariates but cannot account for unmeasured frailty, alcohol use, over‑the‑counter antiplatelet exposure, labile international normalized ratio among warfarin users, AF type and burden, anticoagulant dosing appropriateness, or time‑varying changes in renal function and HF status. Outcome ascertainment based on administrative codes lacks granularity for clinically decisive end points, such as adjudicated major bleeding or AF burden quantified by continuous monitoring. Exposure definitions are similarly constrained, with imperfect capture of treatment duration, persistence, adherence, and switching. These limitations do not invalidate the findings; rather, they define the remaining gaps in evidence.

Mechanistic plausibility, however, is substantial. Post hoc analyses from cardiovascular outcome trials have suggested reductions in incident AF or atrial flutter with dapagliflozin, indicating that the arrhythmia signal is not confined to retrospective datasets.11 Meta‑analytic syntheses12 have further supported associations between SGLT2i use and reduced atrial and broader arrhythmic events, although end points are often secondary, heterogeneously captured, and not adjudicated with an arrhythmia‑focused lens. Proposed mechanisms include decongestion with reduced atrial pressure and volume load, improved ventricular–atrial coupling, attenuation of adipose‑driven inflammation (including epicardial adipose activity), reductions in oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction, and improved renal stability that limits electrolyte and volume fluctuations.13 In humans, the most coherent hypothesis is that upstream modification of hemodynamic and inflammatory stressors reduces atrial vulnerability and symptom‑generating episodes,13,14 thereby lowering health care utilization and procedural escalation.

The clinical implications are therefore nuanced. It would be premature—and methodologically indefensible—to position SGLT2is as an AF therapy based on observational reductions in AF‑related events. However, for the large and growing proportion of patients with AF who already meet established indications for SGLT2is, these data reinforce the concept that optimal cardio‑renal‑metabolic therapy may yield downstream benefits closely aligned with AF care goals: fewer destabilizations, fewer hospital‑based encounters, and potentially fewer catastrophic outcomes. The appropriate framing is not to treat SGLT2is as a therapy specifically for AF, but rather for the syndromes that drive AF, with the expectation that AF‑related outcomes may improve as a consequence of substrate modification.

What is required now is a more decisive evidentiary chain. Pragmatic randomized trials in AF populations—particularly anticoagulated patients with a high comorbidity burden—should predefine bleeding outcomes, AF burden (preferably device‑derived), symptom trajectories, and health care utilization, while embedding mechanistic substudies. These questions sit squarely within the broader evolution of AF management toward earlier,15 mechanism‑informed intervention. If AF is the arrhythmia of multimorbidity, therapies that meaningfully reshape multimorbidity should be expected to reshape AF outcomes. The study by Fawzy et al7 adds weight to that expectation—compelling enough to justify prospective evaluation, but not yet definitive enough to change AF‑specific indications.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the author(s) are not necessarily those of the journal editors, Polish Society of Internal Medicine, or publisher.
Conflict of interest: None declared.
AI statement: Artificial intelligence was not used in the preparation of this manuscript.
References
  1. Karakasis P, Theofilis P, Milaras N, et al. Epigenetic drivers of atrial fibrillation: mechanisms, biomarkers, and therapeutic targets. Int J Mol Sci. 2025; 26: 5253. | Crossref
  2. Van Gelder IC, Rienstra M, Bunting K V, et al. 2024 ESC Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation developed in collaboration with the European Association for Cardio‑Thoracic Surgery (EACTS). Eur Heart J. 2024; 45: 3314‑3414. | Crossref
  3. McMurray JJ V, Solomon SD, Inzucchi SE, et al. Dapagliflozin in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. N Engl J Med. 2019; 381: 1995‑2008. | Crossref
  4. Packer M, Anker SD, Butler J, et al. Cardiovascular and renal outcomes with empagliflozin in heart failure. N Engl J Med. 2020; 383: 1413‑1424. | Crossref
  5. Anker SD, Butler J, Filippatos G, et al. Empagliflozin in heart failure with a preserved ejection fraction. N Engl J Med. 2021; 385: 1451‑1461. | Crossref